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Stock Selection
Criteria
At Phatdads.Com we use
the following stock selection criteria to determine if a stock
should be purchased. We prefer to buy stocks that are in the
formation of a recognizable chart pattern, such as a cup with
handle, double bottom, flag, or flat base, but we like to buy them
prior to the stock breaking out of the pattern, This gives us a much
better entry point and a better chance of being successful in the
trade. We use several chart services and screening tools to come up
with a list of about 150 stocks using the following fundamental and
technical criteria.
Earnings in the last 2 reported
quarters has to be up at least 25% when compared to the same quarter
the year before.
Stock Price must be $7 or greater,
we will not buy stocks priced below $7 a share
Stock must have a Relative Strength
of 65 or better, this is similar to IBD’s Relative Strength ranking,
the stock must have outperformed at least 65% of all other stocks
over the past 6 months.
Institutional Sponsorship between
20% and 90%. This will ensure that at least a few institutions own
shares in the stock, which is needed for growth to occur, but the
stock is not over-owned by institutions that could lead to a big
price drop on bad news
Annual Sales of 1 billion or less.
This keeps us invested in small to mid-cap companies, which have a
higher growth potential and out of the large cap companies that
don’t.
The final screening criteria used is
a Volatility Breakout. At Phatdads.Com we define this as big price
jump on heavy volume, and we will use the 10day Average True Range,
which will be referred to as the 10ATR to determine this. Click here for more information on Average True
Range
The stock must make a move up of at
least 1.5 times the 10ATR, on volume that is at least 140% above the
average volume over the past 50 days.
Note: A Volatility Breakout occurs in a
Major Index, such as the Nasdaq, or S & P 500, when the
index moves up by an amount equal to or greater than the
10ATR on volume that is greater than the previous day's volume and
above the 50 day average. A Volatility Breakdown would occur if the
index drops by an amount equal to or greater than the 10ATR on
volume that is greater than the previous day's volume and above the
50 day average.
For example:
If a stock has a current 10ATR of
$1.00 And the 50day average daily trading volume is 100,000 shares,
then The stock must go up at least $1.50, and trade at least 140,000
shares for a volatility breakout to occur.
Stocks that meet all of the above
criteria are then checked to determine if they have a high ranking
in their Industry Group and to also determine if the Industry Group
has out performed at least 65% of all other Industry Groups over the
past 6 months.
We then use a combination of
several technical indicators to determine if the timing is right to
buy the stock. If the stock meets all of the above criteria but the
timimg is off it will be placed in a watch list and checked daily.
Once a stock is purchased we will
set a stop loss at 2.5 times the 10ATR. For example:
If at the time of purchase the
10ATR of the stock is $1.00, we will set a stop loss at $2.50 below
the purchase price. We will raise this stop to a new level each time
the stock closes at a new high, using the current 10ATR for the
calculation. If on any day the stock drops by an amount equal to or
greater that 2 times the current 10ATR, then we will exit the
position the following morning.
As mentioned earlier we subscribe
to several chart services to do the research necessary to come up
with these selections, In addition to about 10-15 hours of research
per week.
Happy Trading!
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